Unique Ballparks Dictate Over/Under Results

Posted 04 June 2011 | Part III Handicapping Instruction MLB,The View from the Penthouse

Unique Ballparks Dictate Over/Under Results

By Joe Gavazzi Winning Sports Advice

Also impacting a team’s scoring is how ownership chooses to build a team to perform with the greatest advantage vis-a-vis the dimensions of their home park. In this regard, there are classic examples which we all know. Petco Park in San Diego is a traditionally a low scoring venue. This year’s games have averaged just 6.2 RPG with a result of 10-16-3 to the UNDER. It is clear this park has an impact on the Padres because their games averaged 8.4 runs on the road. An opposite example might be the Colorado Rockies who are built for the high scoring, hitter friendly park at mile high altitude. Their home games are averaging 10.5 RPG with a result of 14-10-2 to the OVER. Again, this is confirmed by the fact that on the road Rockies games average just 7.8 RPG.

We gain more benefit from looking at less public examples. By tracking each team’s results home and road comparing it to the averages and doing the same with each opponent they play, it becomes quickly obvious where the inherent ballpark edges may lie. When used in conjunction with 2 teams current form and pitcher data, along with key OVER/UNDER indicators provided by the line maker, you can easily see why OVER/UNDER handicapping in MLB can be among the best propositions in all of sports. To confirm this fact, go to any reliable sports book and ask for the betting limits on MLB OVER/UNDERS compared to that of an NFL game. You will quickly see which they fear more.

While random variance and the fact baseball is a game of inches impact MLB OVER/UNDERS just as sides, the edges gained by doing your homework in the areas above can result in great profit throughout the season.

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