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2016 CFB NAME GAMES 98-70 ATS (59%)

 

 

 

 6% RECORD...74-26  L4Y

Can you afford to miss another one?

 

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Who were you with during Joe's winning streak?

 

 

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St. Bonaventure (-5) at St. Josephs 7:00 ET

Super-surger vs. towel-tosser backed by ample support and a fundamental mismatch! 

 

The wheels have fallen off for St. Joes and with good reason.  Even with a full complement of players, this team, who finished 28-8 SU last year, but was decimated by graduation, was picked for no better than 10th in the A-10.  That was before they lost their starting guard combo of Newkirk at the start of conference play, followed by the loss of Lamar Kimball in mid-February.  Those two were the heart and soul of the Hawks’ offense, as they averaged a combined 35 PPG.   We used them as big dog the game after Kimball was hurt, taking a bloated number of 16 at VCU, as I figured the Hawks would respond the first game after losing their remaining best boy.  But the 91 defensive points allowed to the Rams was a warning sign, as on Saturday, LaSalle put up 83 on the Hawks in a 15 point victory at Gola Arena.  Now, the Hawks return home, where they have never been at their best under 22nd year HC Martelli.  This year in conference play, St. Joes is just 2-5 SU, 0-6 ATS recently with each of their 6 conference home defeats coming by 4 or more points.  Of greater concern, is the 6-game losing streak for the Hawks, which has dropped them to 3-11 SU at the bottom of the league.  Five of those 6 defeats have come by 7 or more points.  In the last 3 contests, they have allowed 87 or more points, indicating their lack of interest until at least next week’s CCT.  In short, they can only be classified as a towel-tosser!

 

The Bonnies are at the other end of the spectrum, standing 8-6 SU in league play with hope remaining for a Top 4 seed in the upcoming CCT.  Fundamentally, they will have a huge edge in the backcourt.  The Bonnies feature a strong scoring tandem in Adams and Mobley, who average over 40 PPG.  With Newkirk and Kimball in the lineup for the Hawks, this would have been a matchup worth watching.  Tonight, it is a total mismatch at the all-important guard position.  The Bonnies won the first meet (67-63).  Even last year, when Joes’ 28-win team was headed to the NCAA, the Bonnies prevailed by margins of 8 and 10 points.  On Saturday, St. Bonnie took Dayton (the league leader) to the wire at UD Arena, eventually losing 76-72.  From a historical perspective, that makes this a solid spot for 10th year HC Mark Schmidt, whose teams are 39-21 ATS, in games following a road or neutral loss.  Even more to our liking is the Bonnies’ performance on the conference road this season against the lower echelon of the league.  Vs. the other 4 cellar dwellers in the conference, the Bonnies won away from Olean by 12 at UMass, 20 vs. Fordham, 19 at St. Louis and 7 at Duquesne.  Any one of those results would clearly serve our purpose with this Top of the Ticket play.

 

With this super-surger vs. towel-tosser mentality, we take this series dominator at a short road price, where they have dominated teams of this ilk, against a St. Joes team who is a shell of what they were expected to be. 

 

Duke (-4) at Syracuse 7:00 ET ESPN

This is the tip-off game of the ESPN ACC Legends Classic, featuring Duke’s Coach K and Jim Boeheim of Syracuse.  Each of these veteran mentors has again had successful seasons, taking young, but highly touted talent, and turning them into winning teams.  The Blue Devils had a bit of a downturn in the absence of Coach K, but have since rebounded to enter tonight on a 7-game winning streak.  With a record of 10-4 SU in ACC play, they trail the Tar Heels by a single game for the top spot.   Remember, however, they have already beaten N. Carolina, so currently hold the tiebreaker.  Yet, the performance of Duke in this role has again been unremarkable, as they are 0-2 ATS as 4 point road favorite at VA Tech and Wake Forest.  After a high-scoring 99-94 home victory over Wake Forest on Saturday, combined with the 3rd consecutive Syracuse loss (a 71-65 defeat at GA Tech), it keys a reversal situation that is 140-66 ATS in recent seasons.  Remember that last season, Syracuse barely qualified for the NCAA, yet went on to play in the Final Four.  With Boeheim’s young minions slowly evolving, the bounce back angle is clearly in our favor as is a Carrier Dome court, where Syracuse is 56-14 SU L4Y, including 14-3 SU this season (3-1 ATS as home dog), we line up with the Orangemen in their preferred role on their strong home court.

 

Louisville at N. Carolina (-5 ½) 9:00 ET ESPN

This is the nightcap of the ESPN ACC Legends Classic, featuring Pitino of Louisville and Williams of N. Carolina.  The normal edge in the paint is not present for N. Carolina tonight, as Louisville features the size and athleticism up front to counteract N. Carolina’s usual dominance on the interior.  That’s confirmed by the +6 net TO margin for the Cards.  Without that interior edge, it becomes a far more even game, despite the fact that Carolina enters tonight at 28-1 SU at the Smith Center (the last 2 years), including 13-0 SU this season.  Must respect the fact that the Heels are 53-28 ATS (3-0 ATS TY) up to -9 on this court.  In the ACC season, Carolina is 5-1 ATS as home chalk.  Louisville counters with the fine road record of Pitino at 93-71 ATS.  We have also come to Pitino’s time of the year.  Note that his Cards are 55-33 ATS when entering the game off 3 consecutive victories.  Final factor favoring Louisville is their Defensive Dandy status, which finds them to be one of a dozen teams who qualify as such with defensive allowances of 64/39/30, a positive rebound margin, a positive A/TO ratio and positive net TO margin.  All good enough for us to side with them in the role of underdog!

 

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