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College Football 9/29/2011

USF at Pittsburgh – Buy This Pick for only $4.00

“Is There a Bonanza with NFL Totals?  By Joe Gavazzi

In October of 2010, I immediately isolated an NFL OVER trend. Perhaps it was because of an incident that happened with my hometown Pittsburgh Steelers.  It was at that point in the season that the Steelers were fined repeatedly for what the NFL termed “unsportsmanlike hits”.  The NFL handed out large fines, and made threats of handing out even largely fines if the purported violence continued.  With defenders notably changing their playing style, scoring in the NFL rose to almost 50 PPG for over a month.  It was not until the cold weather began to influence scoring and a mindset returned to normal that scoring began to settle down.

Once the labor dispute was settled prior to the 2011 season, the NFL repeated their threats.  Penalties, fines and suspensions would be immediate and severe for any blows to the head, any use of the helmet as a weapon, or any unnecessary attacks on  unprotected players.  Some may say that the Week #1 offenses of NFL teams were ahead of the defenses or there were more teams (witness Miami on Monday night) who changed offensive schemes from a less conservative approach.  Or perhaps, there is an influence of the new kick off rules.  To this viewer, however, it was apparent that defenders were playing with less abandon for fear of threats they would be penalized.  Regardless of what the influencing factors were, the results are obvious.

Opening week results of the 16 games resulted in 13 OVERS and 3 UNDERS.  There were 752 total points scored for an average of 47 PPG.  11 teams scored 28 or more points.  Only 1 game totaled less than 40 points.  Though there were some indications that the linemaker had an inkling of what was to come, the fact is the average opening total for Week #1 was 41 PPG, a very common average for opening week.  Inevitable adjustments have been made for Week #2.  Yet much like last year, the adjustments they make may be too slow.  Week #2 OVER/UNDER numbers for the 15 games of Sunday, September 18^th averaged just 42.7 PPG.  There are again numerous indications on the part of the linemaker as to which games have a higher propensity for going OVER the posted total.

For your information:  my OVER/UNDER service is now 11-3 dating back to the PreSeason action in NFL this season.

“MLB Fall Ball” by Joe Gavazzi

The end of August I wrote an article about how the “Dog Days of August” would turn into the “Dog Plays of September”.   This has played out with accuracy as I write this Tuesday, September 13^th.  After going 226-123 (65%) to end August, MLB favorites have fallen to a 90-70 (56%) mark in the month of September.  This includes just 3-8 last night.  At inflated prices on contending teams, you can see how this has turned into solid profit for underdog players.

You don’t need to look much further than the fading fortunes of overpriced Atlanta (3-9, 0-4) or Boston (2-9, 0-5) to note that there is big money to be made against these 2^nd placed teams who are feeling the pressure of contention.  At this writing, in the National League, Milwaukee is on a 1-5 slide and even the Phillies have lost 2 in a row as complacency sets in with their 12 game Division lead.  The only super surging contenders have been St. Louis (10-3, 5-1) as the Hunter in the Wild Card chase and Arizona (17-3) as they look to chase down Milwaukee for home field advantage.

In the American League, the T Bay Rays are on an 8-1 streak as they play the role of Hunter in the AL Wild Card race.  Even the hot hitting Texas Rangers have been mediocre in the last 7 weeks posting just an 11-12 mark, many times as dominant favorite.

It is easy to assume that the teams who super surged in August will continue their ascent in the Division races.  But as either the pressure mounts, or complacency sets in, these teams year after year prove to be overpriced investments in the month of September.

FREE MLB Fall Ball Winner from Joe Gavazzi of Winning Sports Advice

4* Florida (Hand) (+180) vs. Atlanta (Minor)

We have been fading Atlanta and riding Florida in their respective streaks which have each reached 4 games.  Longer term, Atlanta is 3-9 with a starter ERA of over 5.  Florida has gone 7-2 outscoring the opposition 49-28.  A quick glance at Hands numbers show he is 1-6 with a 3.91 ERA and 28/32 KBB.  But a closer inspection indicates he has allowed 3 or less runs in 9/10 recent starts.  Plenty of value remains by fading Atlanta as they feel the pressure of a 4.5 game Wild Card lead.

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Week 2, Saturday September 10^th, 2011

By: Joe Gavazzi     Winning Sports Advice

Week two is characterized by the greatest line adjustments of any week in the season. The linemaker reacts or overreacts to the previous game results by adjusting the lines on game two by as much as 10 points from game one. As a result, this week’s theme is “The Handicappers Conundrum: Momentum or Bounce Back?” As such it is our job to go inside the numbers of the games and determine whether the adjustments are accurate or not. But before I can tell you that story, let me tell you this story.

New Maryland head coach Randy Edsall has been one of the best ATS coaches in the NCAA. Since 2000, while at UCONN, he amassed a record of 68-43 ATS including 17-7 ATS L2Y. With under a minute remaining in the Miami vs. Maryland game his new Maryland team led by two as a four point favorite. It is interesting to note that Miami opened as a five point favorite. But due to 8 suspensions there was a 9 point line move. Miami had the ball driving for the winning score. A sideline pass resulted in a Maryland INT and apparent spread beating Pick 6. Being a Miami backer, Edsalls fine ATS record flashed through my mind. But wait! There was Edsall, on the sideline begging for the runner to fall down, which would have ended the game with a Maryland win but Miami cover. Even after the play was over Edsall was explaining to his young defender that he gave Miami a chance to tie the game. But the real people who celebrated were those who had the 9 point middle in the game. I’m sure rumors that among those were people in the Maryland camp. But that couldn’t possibly be true, could it? When the game ended we concluded week one with an 11-14-2 ATS mark (including no plays on the two wash out games, Marshall and Western Michigan).

Let’s move on to Week 2 to solve the conundrum. Remember, all abbreviations used in this document are standard to the sports service industry. I will often refer to the AFP number. This is the number by which a team lost or beat the spread in a particular game, or as a net number for a group of games. All lines used are the best available as of 8:00AM EST Wednesday morning.

Enjoy!

Joe Gavazzi

(325) Cincinnati vs. (326) Tennessee (-6)  3:30 PM EST  ESPN-2

Underdog of the Week

This will be a notably improved Tennessee team for second year HC Dooley. They look to build on their 4-0 SU ATS regular season finish and the experience of a Bowl loss vs. North Carolina. With 13 RS and experienced QB Bray they look to build on their momentum from a game 1 victory over Montana 42-16(-1 AFP). Yet one could forgive them if they looked ahead to their game at SEC rival Florida slated for next Saturday. But in talking about teams who will improve from last year consider the 4-8 SU ATS Bearcats under second year HC Jones. They have legitimate offensive triplets with QB Collaros, RB Pead and WR Binns. That played out in a 72-10 offensive explosion against Austin Peay, in which they outgained the Guvs by a count of 561-277. 10 RS to the defensive side of the ball implies improvement and excellence from that unit. In the face of that +20 AFP performance, the Bearcats got, for their performance, AN EXTRA 3 POINTS in the line. Take quite possibly the better team with generous points in a solid situation.

(339) Stanford (-21) vs. (340) Duke  3:30 PM EST  ESPN-U

Lone Ranger Contrary Play of the Week

Each week this season I will attempt to locate a game where recent results give great line value. And as a result, a contrary side to the thinking of most momentum players. Stanford embarrassed us when they beat Bay Area rival San Jose St. 57-3 last week for a +27 AFP margin. Along with teams like Virginia, Temple and Toledo it was among the biggest spread wins of week 1 for teams who are playing in week 2. Yet that final score was far from represented in the stats. Stanford held just a 373-237 yardage edge. That’s a margin which would have resulted in a more representative score of 24-14. Remember this was a team whose +13 net TO margin of 2010 resulted in a +144 Net AFP Diff and has left them in my opinion overrated for this season. Now following that big opening day win, which has surely left them over confident, they must travel over 3,000 miles west to east with a new coach making his road debut. With a PAC 12 team, Arizona, on deck this is clearly a let down for the Cardinals. It’s not like Stanford is a traditional power team. Their history shows them to be just 4-13 SU away vs. non-cons setting up on the home side of the ball is a perennially poor team who comes off a 23-21 home loss to Richmond. Much like the Stanford game a closer look at the stats shows Duke winning the overland battle 177-94 with a yardage edge of 381-288. The resulting +39 Net AFP along with early public money provides us with an outstanding contrary value play on the home standing Blue Devils.

(341) Alabama (-10) vs. (342) Penn State  3:30 PM EST ABC

Feline Feature of the Week

This is the inaugural week of the return of the MWM dynamic duo of Cheetah Leggings and Heidelicious Rock Rock. Until the money runs out (They believe their annual budget is equal to the sum of subscriptions to the MWM) they will be making weekly road trips to selected sites around the country to back their favorite feline in our Cat of the Week feature. The girls have had some incredible seasons in the past-not just in creating memories for them and you- but for their ATS results as well. This week they are off to State college, PA to back the Penn State Nittany Lions as their Feline Feature of the Week. Those of you who would like to renew acquaintances with Cheetah and Heidelicious you will be able to find them at two of their favorite haunts. For sure they will be spending time at ESSPA the newly opened upscale Spa at State College. There will be hot rock massages, facials, mani’s and pedi’s. An entire Friday could be taken up with these activities. In the evening look for them at The Gingerbread Man. The G’man is under new ownership but still exists at 130 Heister Street. Heidelicious prefers the Mind Eraser cocktails, Cheetah will be holding court at her Molson table where you can purchase 80 ounces of the brew for just $9.50 (I’ll do the math for you: that’s less than $1.00 for a 10 ounce glass). They would love to hear your stories and share theirs so make sure to look them up if you’re at State College this weekend. On the field expect White Out conditions for over 100,000 faithful as Penn State looks to avenge a 24-3 Loss in Tuscaloosa last year. The Crimson Tide easily outmanned Kent last week 48-7 holding the Golden Flashes to just 90 net yards. Penn State was making short work of Indiana State 41-7 out rushing them 245-65 and allowing just 170 total yards. 10 points look like a mountain for this road favorite to overcome as defenses figure to rule the day. With Alabama featuring a new QB making his first road start and outright win by the Lions would be no surprise to this bureau. If so you can be assured Heidelicious and Cheetah Rock Rock will be celebrating well into the night.

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