“Is There a Bonanza with NFL Totals? By Joe Gavazzi
“Is There a Bonanza with NFL Totals? By Joe Gavazzi
In October of 2010, I immediately isolated an NFL OVER trend. Perhaps it was because of an incident that happened with my hometown Pittsburgh Steelers. It was at that point in the season that the Steelers were fined repeatedly for what the NFL termed “unsportsmanlike hits”. The NFL handed out large fines, and made threats of handing out even largely fines if the purported violence continued. With defenders notably changing their playing style, scoring in the NFL rose to almost 50 PPG for over a month. It was not until the cold weather began to influence scoring and a mindset returned to normal that scoring began to settle down.
Once the labor dispute was settled prior to the 2011 season, the NFL repeated their threats. Penalties, fines and suspensions would be immediate and severe for any blows to the head, any use of the helmet as a weapon, or any unnecessary attacks on unprotected players. Some may say that the Week #1 offenses of NFL teams were ahead of the defenses or there were more teams (witness Miami on Monday night) who changed offensive schemes from a less conservative approach. Or perhaps, there is an influence of the new kick off rules. To this viewer, however, it was apparent that defenders were playing with less abandon for fear of threats they would be penalized. Regardless of what the influencing factors were, the results are obvious.
Opening week results of the 16 games resulted in 13 OVERS and 3 UNDERS. There were 752 total points scored for an average of 47 PPG. 11 teams scored 28 or more points. Only 1 game totaled less than 40 points. Though there were some indications that the linemaker had an inkling of what was to come, the fact is the average opening total for Week #1 was 41 PPG, a very common average for opening week. Inevitable adjustments have been made for Week #2. Yet much like last year, the adjustments they make may be too slow. Week #2 OVER/UNDER numbers for the 15 games of Sunday, September 18th averaged just 42.7 PPG. There are again numerous indications on the part of the linemaker as to which games have a higher propensity for going OVER the posted total.
For your information: my OVER/UNDER service is now 11-3 dating back to the PreSeason action in NFL this season.
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